Market intelligence firm IDC has revised its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2024, projecting a 5.8% year-on-year (YoY) increase to 1.23 billion units. This optimistic outlook is fueled by strong demand for affordable Android devices in emerging markets and significant interest in generative AI (GenAI)-capable smartphones in premium segments.
According to IDC’s senior research director, Nabila Popal, Android devices are set to outpace iOS in growth, with a projected 7.1% rise compared to Apple's 0.8%. This disparity is largely due to intensified competition for Apple in China and a higher comparison base year for iPhones. However, the forecast leaves room for potential upside for iOS, contingent on the reception of GenAI features in the upcoming iPhone 16 and Apple's ability to secure local AI partnerships in China. IDC anticipates a stronger trajectory for iOS in 2025, with expected 4% YoY growth, driven by the momentum of Apple Intelligence.
The report highlights the rapid adoption of GenAI smartphones, predicting a staggering 344% growth in this segment, which is expected to represent 18% of the total market by the end of 2024. IDC research director Anthony Scarsella noted that most flagship models are likely to integrate on-device GenAI features, furthering the premiumization trend in the industry. The average selling price for GenAI-capable smartphones is anticipated to be more than double that of non-GenAI devices.
The smartphone market’s recovery follows a challenging period, with IDC reporting 12% growth in the first quarter of 2024 and 9% in the second quarter. This positive trend has bolstered confidence in the industry’s performance for the latter half of the year.
Supporting IDC’s findings, Canalys research also showed strong growth in the global smartphone market during the second quarter of 2024, with shipments reaching 288.9 million units. Despite only a modest 1% increase in shipments, Samsung maintained its lead with 53.5 million units shipped, while Apple held second place with 45.6 million units, driven by solid momentum in North America and emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
China’s Xiaomi followed closely, shipping 42.3 million units and securing a 15% market share. Canalys noted that China’s market is now aligning with global trends, propelled by improved macroeconomic conditions and renewed business confidence.
In response to these developments, Chinese brands are expected to leverage GenAI features to distinguish themselves in the premium segment, aiming to capture the rising high-end consumer spending. Samsung and Apple are also focusing on enhancing their AI strategies, with Samsung integrating exclusive GenAI features into its Galaxy ecosystem and Apple aiming to accelerate replacement demand through its AI initiatives.
Despite these positive indicators, Canalys cautions that the smartphone market is unlikely to achieve double-digit growth in 2024, with the firm predicting mid-single-digit growth for the year. This growth will be driven by recovering inventory levels, eased import restrictions, and a better economic climate.
