The year 2024 holds the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to become an integral part of our daily lives, yet uncertainties loom, prompting experts to share their insights on what lies ahead.
Against the backdrop of Hollywood's resistance to automation, the emergence of consumer chatbots like OpenAI's GPT-4 and Elon Musk's Grok, and a somewhat failed coup against Sam Altman, the AI landscape is in flux. A viral deepfake featuring Pope Francis in a puffer jacket adds to the intrigue.
In anticipation of the coming year, experts foresee a regulatory shift. Amy Webb, CEO of the Future Today Institute, suggests a possibility of requiring AI systems to obtain professional licenses, mirroring the standards imposed on human professionals. This sentiment aligns with recent political efforts to regulate AI, including President Biden's executive order and a Senate draft policy on deepfakes.
Internationally, the European Union is expected to finalize its AI Act, introducing comprehensive regulations with transparency and governance requirements. Justin Hughes, a law professor, predicts these regulations may influence American firms.
However, calls for regulation face opposition from the effective accelerationism movement, emphasizing rapid innovation with minimal oversight. Julie Fredrickson, a tech investor aligned with the movement, anticipates tensions around regulatory frameworks, emphasizing the constitutional issues related to AI.
The importance of authenticity in the digital realm is emphasized by experts. Mike Gioia predicts Apple might introduce a certification stamp for AI-free photos, aiming to enhance trust. Additionally, measures like "Content Credentials," embedding metadata in digital media files, could help verify the origin of content, crucial in an era where AI-generated media proliferates.
The pace of AI innovation is expected to continue in 2024. Ted Ross, GM of the City of Los Angeles Information Technology Agency, predicts widespread integration of AI into business and consumer applications, with users often unaware of its presence. Moreover, experts anticipate the rise of leaner alternatives to large language models, coupled with tools facilitating AI research acceleration.
However, amid the AI boom, concerns about a potential market bubble arise. Clément Delangue, CEO of Hugging Face, suggests a hyped AI company might face bankruptcy or acquisition at a low valuation in 2024. Eric Siegel warns of a possible "AI Winter" — a period of declining interest and investment in AI — if the technology fails to meet grand expectations. Yet, Siegel acknowledges that this scenario may be a few years away, given the current momentum in the AI field.
As 2024 unfolds, the interplay of regulation, authenticity, innovation, and market dynamics will shape the future trajectory of artificial intelligence.
